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Pakistan’s Downward Spiral Leaves India With Vigilance as the Only Viable Policy

Dec 1, 2025

New Delhi— Once again, events in Pakistan have revived a familiar global lament: just when it seems the country has reached its lowest point, it finds new depths to plunge into. Analysts say the crisis-prone nation—born out of a religious identity in 1947—continues to grapple with contradictions that have prevented democracy, stability, and institutional coherence from taking firm root.

What the international community now views as Pakistan’s “state behaviour” — marked by duplicity, diplomatic abrasiveness, and strategic deceit — is no longer attributed solely to its powerful military establishment. Increasingly, these patterns are visible among its political class and even sections of the public.

In India, Persistent Calls for ‘Friendship’
Even as Pakistan lurches from crisis to crisis, a section of Indian political voices continues to advocate rapprochement. Leaders like Mani Shankar Aiyar and Farooq Abdullah regularly call for sustaining dialogue and goodwill, despite repeated setbacks and cross-border violence.

Critics argue this sentiment ignores repeated terror strikes on Indian soil traced back to groups nurtured in Pakistan. “Reality must trump romanticism,” analysts say.

Cold Shoulder From Muslim Nations
Notably, even countries Pakistan assumes as natural allies are distancing themselves. The UAE has imposed an unofficial freeze on various visa categories for Pakistanis after rising instances of overstays, organised begging, and criminal activity. Saudi Arabia has expelled Pakistanis involved in begging rackets.

These decisions, experts note, stem not from ideology but from repeated patterns of misconduct.

Digital Interference Exposed
Pakistan’s appetite for covert influence appears to extend online. A recent update by social platform X, which shows country labels based on device location, unintentionally exposed a sprawling network of Pakistan-based accounts impersonating Indian users. Many used Hindu names and Hindi-language posts while participating in Indian political and religious debates.

Indian officials say it confirms long-standing suspicions of coordinated influence operations aimed at sowing discord. “This is part of a much older pattern,” one senior official noted.

A History of Betrayal
The pattern, analysts point out, mirrors past diplomatic duplicity. In 1999, even as then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee traveled to Lahore to pursue peace, Pakistan’s military launched the Kargil intrusion. Vajpayee later told Parliament, “You can change your friends, but not your neighbours,” capturing India’s bind: proximity without trust.

The current government, by contrast, has sought to shift policy from patience to deterrence — through surgical strikes, trade suspension, diplomatic isolation, and invoking provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message has been unambiguous: “Blood and water cannot flow together.”

Terror Strikes Continue
Even as Pakistan reels internally, Islamabad-backed groups continue to stage attacks. Since 2014, strikes linked to Pakistan have included Pathankot (2016), Uri (2016), the Amarnath Yatra attack (2017), Pulwama (2019), and most recently the Reasi attack (2024), Pahalgam (April 2025), and the Delhi car blast (Nov. 11, 2025).

Officials say infiltration attempts and smaller attacks in Jammu & Kashmir continue “with disturbing regularity.”

Embarrassments Beyond Politics
Pakistan’s institutional dysfunction often spills into the mundane. A recent controversy involving the Asia Cup cricket trophy — reportedly taken home by a Pakistani minister who has not returned it to India, the rightful champions — has become symbolic of broader administrative decay.

A Leadership Trap
Pakistan’s leadership, analysts argue, remains trapped in a cycle of denial. From Jinnah to Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zulfikar Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq, Pervez Musharraf, and now Gen. Asim Munir, the country’s rulers have oscillated between authoritarianism and instability. Munir’s conduct after the April 22 Pahalgam attack, Indian officials say, revealed an ambition to consolidate personal authority amid chaos.

India’s Calculus: Restraint Meets Realism
India cannot stabilize Pakistan, analysts emphasize. That responsibility lies with Pakistan’s civil and military leadership. For New Delhi, the path forward is one of vigilance, deterrence, and calibrated engagement, but no illusions.

“Geography may lock the two countries together,” one strategic expert said, “but geography cannot force India to indulge Pakistan’s behaviour endlessly.”

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