ABC News exit poll analysis: Keys to Democrats’ sweep of major races

The economy and direction of the country were at the top of voters’ minds.

How are voters in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California feeling about the country, the economy and other issues? Here’s what we learned from preliminary ABC News exit polls, conducted by SSRS.

Virginia
Keys to Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s projected win in the governor’s race:

The economy: Nearly half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth, and they supported Spanberger by more than 20 percentage points, according to ABC News exit polling.

Independents: Among the third of Virginia voters who call themselves independent, Spanberger led in exit polling by around 20 percentage points, according to exit polling, with nearly 6 in 10 independents supporting the Democrat. In the 2021 gubernatorial election in the commonwealth, Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won the election, had support from over half of independents.

Abortion: About 6 in 10 voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases and about 8 in 10 of them supported Spanberger. 

Government workers: Roughly 6 in 10 said that federal government cuts affected their family’s finances; and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger had majority support from from people living in households with federal government and contractor workers. She also won households who were not tied to federal government work.

Most Virginia voters said the state’s economy is doing well, but few said their personal finances are improving:

Nearly 6 in 10 said that the state of the commonwealth’s economy is “excellent” or “good,” while about 4 in 10 said the economy is “not so good” or “poor.” But few Virginia voters said their families are “getting ahead” financially. Just over 1 in 10 said they were getting ahead, while about 6 in 10 said they were “holding steady” and about 2 in 10 said they were “falling behind.”

Many voters in Virginia are employed or were previously employed by the federal government or as a federal contractor — many of whom are currently furloughed.

Election Day marked the 35th day of the government shutdown. Many federal employees have been furloughed; others have lost their jobs due to President Donald Trump’s steep cuts to the federal government. About 1 in 5 Virginia voters said they either currently or were previously employed by the federal government or as a federal contractor.

More on the economy:

• Nearly 6 in 10 Virginia voters said that the state of the commonwealth’s economy is “excellent” or “good,” while about 4 in 10 said the economy is “not so good” or “poor,” according to exit polls. While a majority of Virginia voters who said the economy was doing well voted for Earle-Sears, a much larger majority who said it was not doing well voted for Spanberger.
• But few Virginia voters said their families are “getting ahead” financially. Just over 1 in 10 said they were getting ahead, while about 6 in 10 said they were “holding steady” and about 2 in 10 said they were “falling behind,” according to  exit polls. Majorities of both those who said they were holding steady and falling behind voted for Spanberger.

Other issues:

• Just over half of Virginia voters said that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have “gone too far,” and over 9 in 10 of them voted for Spanberger.

What Virginia voters were looking for in a gubernatorial candidate:

About a third of Virginia voters said that a candidate who shares their values was the quality that mattered the most in deciding how they voted for governor, followed by about 2 in 10 who said that the candidate was honest and trustworthy and another roughly 2 in 10 who said the candidate would work for people like them. Slightly fewer said they were looking for a candidate who would bring needed change while less than 1 in 10 said a candidate who had the right experience mattered the most.

Virginia voters are mostly negative about the state of the country:

Over 6 in 10 Virginia voters said they are either dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country today — including more than one-third who said they are angry. Over 9 in 10 self-described “angry” voters voted for Spanberger and over 6 in 10 “dissatisfied” voters did as well. A third said they were enthusiastic or satisfied, and wide majorities of them voted for Earle-Sears.

Nearly half of Virginia voters said attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ texts were disqualifying for the job:

Democrat Jay Jones was revealed to have called for violence against a Republican lawmaker in leaked text messages. Nearly half of voters in the state said that the text messages were disqualifying for the job, while around a quarter said they were concerning but not disqualifying.

Virginia voter groups:

By region: Preliminary exit polling found that in Virginia’s D.C. suburbs and the Hampton Roads area, a majority of voters supported Spanberger. She also enjoyed a slim majority in Central Virginia. The vote was roughly tied in Richmond and the Southern part of the state. In the mountain region, Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears had an advantage.

By gender: Spanberger enjoys support from a majority of women while Earle-Sears has a slim majority of male voter support.

By Trump approval: Roughly half of Virginia voters strongly disapprove of Trump and those voters supported Spanberger by wide margins. A slim majority of small share of Virginia voters who “somewhat disapprove” of Trump supported Spanberger. Wide majorities of those who approve of Trump supported Earle-Sears.

Vote by 2024 vote: A vast majority  of those who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 supported Spanberger while nearly as many of those who voted for Trump supported Earle-Sears in this election.

By age: Younger voters largely supported Spanberger, with her earning support from roughly two-thirds of voters under 30. Over half of voters ages 30 to 44 in the commonwealth supported her as well. The vote between those ages 45 and older was split somewhat evenly between the two candidates.

By race: Preliminary exit polls found that roughly 9 in 10 Black voters supported Spanberger, along with over 6 in 10 Hispanic/Latino and Asian voters. A slim majority of white voters supported Earle-Sears.

New Jersey

Taxes and the economy were the most important issues for New Jersey voters:

About a third said taxes were the most important issue facing New Jersey, while another roughly third of voters said the economy was. Similar shares of tax-focused voters supported Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli as economy-focused voters supported Sherrill. Fewer named health care, immigration or crime as their top issue.

More on how New Jersey voters are viewing the economy:

About 6 in 10 New Jersey voters said that the economy in the state was doing “not so good” or “poor,” while about 4 in 10 said it was “excellent” or “good.”

Sherrill had support from three-quarters of those who said the state of the economy was good or excellent, while Ciattarelli won nearly 6 in 10 of those who said the economy was not so good or poor.

New Jersey voters are largely negative on property taxes, with roughly 7 in 10 saying they were “a major problem” where they live. These voters split their vote about evenly between the candidates. Just over 7 in 10 of those who said property taxes were a minor problem or not a problem voted for Sherrill.

Additionally, about 6 in 10 New Jersey voters said electricity costs where they live were “a major problem,” with a small majority of them supporting the Republican candidate.

Other issues:

• Just over half of New Jersey voters said that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have “gone too far,” while voters were split over whether the next governor should cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
• Almost half of New Jersey voters said that support for transgender rights in society have “gone too far.” Roughly another quarter said they have not gone far enough and around a quarter said support for trans rights has been about right.

What New Jersey voters were looking for in a gubernatorial candidate:

Exit polls found that about 3 in 10 voters said they were looking for a candidate for governor who would bring needed change — and most of these voters supported the Republican candidate. Roughly a quarter said they wanted a candidate who shared their values and about 2 in 10 said they wanted someone who would work for people like them — and most of these voters supported the Democrat. Slightly fewer said they wanted a candidate who was honest and trustworthy; they mostly supported Sherrill as well. Under 1 in 10 said they sought a governor who was a strong leader, and they were roughly split in their vote, based on data.

Most New Jersey voters are negative about the state of the country:

About two-thirds of New Jersey voters said they were “dissatisfied” or “angry” about the way things are going in the country today — including about 4 in 10 who said they were angry. About 9 in 10 voters who said they were angry supported Sherrill, along with a smaller majority of those who said they were dissatisfied. Just about a third said they were “enthusiastic” or “satisfied.” Most of those voters supported Ciattarelli.

Most New Jersey voters feel political corruption is a big issue in the state:

Nine in 10 New Jersey voters said they think political corruption is a problem in New Jersey, including over half who said it’s a “major problem.”

New Jersey voter groups

Independents: Over half of support Sherrill, according to preliminary exit poll results. 

By gender: Roughly 6 in 10 New Jersey female voters supported Sherrill, according to preliminary exit poll data, while roughly half of male voters in the state supported Ciatterelli.

By age: A majority of New Jersey voters under 45 supported Sherrill, according to early exit polling, while those 45 and older split their votes roughly evenly between the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor.

By race: Just over half of white New Jersey voters supported the Republican candidate for governor, while wider majorities of Black, Asian and Hispanic/Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate, according to preliminary exit polls.

By Trump approval: Nearly half of New Jersey voters strongly disapproved of how Trump was handling his job as president, according to early exit polling, and an overwhelming share of these voters supported Sherrill. A smaller majority of those who somewhat disapproved of the president also supported the Democrat, while similar margins of Trump approvers supported the Republican candidate — but they made up a smaller share of voters.

New York City

Keys to Mamdani’s projected win in mayor’s race:

Age: Mamdani has majority support from voters under 45 years old, while 45- to 64-year-olds roughly split their votes between Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo with a much smaller share going to Curtis Sliwa. Over half of voters 65 and older supported Cuomo, with over one-third of them supporting Mamdani.

Religion: Exit polls found that by about a 2-to-1 margin, Jewish voters in New York City supported Cuomo over Mamdani. More Catholic voters supported Cuomo than Mamdani as well. Cuomo also edged out Mamdani among Protestant and other Christian voters. Voters of no religion or another religion supported Mamdani by wide margins. There were not enough Muslim voters polled to break down precisely how they voted.

Israel: The almost 4 in 10 voters who said that the candidates’ positions on Israel were “a major factor” to their votes split their support about evenly between Mamdani and Cuomo. The exit poll did not ask about their specific position on Israel.

By party: While Democrats dominate New York City (and almost 6 in 10 of voters in the election identified as Democrats), Cuomo — who ran as an independent — won among Republicans, with around 7 in 10 Republicans supporting him and only about a quarter supporting Republican candidate Sliwa.

By Trump approval: About 6 in 10 New York City voters strongly disapprove of Trump and they supported Mamdani by wide margins. Among the small share of voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump, a majority of voters supported Cuomo. Among the roughly quarter of New York City voters who approved of Trump, Cuomo performed better than the Republican candidate: about 7 in 10 supported Cuomo and about 2 in 10 supported Sliwa.

By education: A majority of New York City voters were college graduates, according to preliminary exit polling and a majority of them voted for Mamdani. Those with no college degree split slightly more for Cuomo.

New voters: Nearly 2 in 10 voters said it was the first time they voted in a New York City mayoral election and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Mamdani over Cuomo.

By length of time living in New York City: Relative newcomers to New York City were some of the most likely voters in the state to vote for Mamdani, with about 8 in 10 of those who have lived in New York City less than 10 years supporting Mamdani. He also earned over half of the support of New York City voters who lived there for over 10 years but were not born in New York. Voters who were born in New York City voted for Cuomo over Mamdani.  

By ideology: About a quarter of New York City voters called themselves “very liberal,” and a wide majority of these voters supported Mamdani. Another roughly 2 in 10 said they were somewhat liberal and they also widely voted for Mamdani. More moderate voters supported Cuomo than Mamdani. Among conservative New York City voters, a majority supported Cuomo. 

By renters vs. owners: Most New York City voters in this election were renters and over half of them supported Mamdani. Among the roughly 4 in 10 who own their homes, roughly half supported Cuomo and about 6 in 10 supported Mamdani.

Cost of living is the most important issue to New York City voters:

More than half of voters in New York City said the cost of living was the most important issue facing the city, dwarfing the other issues measured in ABC News exit polling, and around two-thirds of those voted for Mamdani. Under a quarter said crime was the most important issue (and about two-thirds of those voters went for Cuomo). About 1 in 10 said immigration, with even fewer who said health care or transportation were most important.

New York City voters on cost of living and the economy:

• About 6 in 10 California voters said that the governor should not cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement. 
• Over 6 in 10 California voters are opposed to the federal government sending the National Guard to major cities in California.

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