Assam polls 2026: Survey shows NDA’s slim lead as unemployment fury and Zubeen Garg outrage fuel voter volatility

With the 2026 Assam Assembly elections approaching fast, a recently conducted survey shows the ruling NDA holding a precarious edge on governance trust, but a toxic brew of youth unemployment rage, flood woes, corruption scandals, and the unresolved Zubeen Garg death probe threatening to ignite a brutal showdown.

The survey conducted by Vote Vibe under its StateVibe series revealed, just 33.4 per cent voting intent against the INDIA Bloc’s 30.9 per cent, the NDA’s lead hinges on a massive 19.1 per cent undecided bloc.

Minorities tilt decisively toward the opposition INDIA Bloc, while SC, ST, OBC, and General category voters anchor the NDA’s fragile advantage. As campaigns gear up, the survey signals a high-stakes scramble for the center, where governance boasts collide with raw emotional undercurrents.

NDA’s narrow edge masks deep divisions

The NDA’s 33.4 per cent voting intention barely outpaces the INDIA Bloc’s 30.9 per cent, but the real wildcard lurks in the 19.1 per cent undecided voters, enough to crown or crush any frontrunner. Caste and community loyalties sharpen the divide: minorities flock to INDIA, yet the NDA dominates among SC/ST, OBC, and upper-caste blocs, cementing its governance credibility while exposing opposition fractures.

This razor-thin margin reflects a polarized electorate, primed for aggressive coalition maneuvers and targeted outreach. Political strategists warn that swaying the undecideds will demand surgical precision amid rising anti-incumbency whispers.

Unemployment reigns supreme, Zubeen Garg probe stokes fury

Unemployment crushes all other concerns at 24.7 per cent, hitting hardest among senior citizens (40 per cent) and Muslims (30 per cent). Floods and rehabilitation trail at 12.8 per cent, a timeless Assam tormentor, while corruption claims 11.7 per cent.

Yet, the survey’s flashpoint is the 11.2 per cent demanding a “fair investigation” into singer Zubeen Garg’s death. These pressure points paint a volatile canvas, where bread-and-butter issues entwine with cultural outrage to redefine the electoral arithmetic.

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